Five Thirty Eight

[irregularjoe]

FiveThirtyEight

[JDoors]

There are several principal ways that the FiveThityEight methodology differs from other poll compilations:

Firstly, we assign each poll a weighting based on that pollster's historical track record, the poll's sample size, and the recentness of the poll. More reliable polls are weighted more heavily in our averages.

Secondly, we include a regression estimate based on the demographics in each state among our 'polls', which helps to account for outlier polls and to keep the polling in its proper context.

Thirdly, we use an inferential process to compute a rolling trendline that allows us to adjust results in states that have not been polled recently and make them ‘current’.

Fourthly, we simulate the election 10,000 times for each site update in order to provide a probabilistic assessment of electoral outcomes based on a historical analysis of polling data since 1952. The simulation further accounts for the fact that similar states are likely to move together, e.g. future polling movement in states like Michigan and Ohio, or North and South Carolina, is likely to be in the same direction.

I'm no statistical genius, but it sounds like all that could be condensed into:

We guess, just like everyone else.

[irregularjoe]

There are several principal ways that the FiveThityEight methodology differs from other poll compilations:

Firstly, we assign each poll a weighting based on that pollster's historical track record, the poll's sample size, and the recentness of the poll. More reliable polls are weighted more heavily in our averages.

Secondly, we include a regression estimate based on the demographics in each state among our 'polls', which helps to account for outlier polls and to keep the polling in its proper context.

Thirdly, we use an inferential process to compute a rolling trendline that allows us to adjust results in states that have not been polled recently and make them ‘current’.

Fourthly, we simulate the election 10,000 times for each site update in order to provide a probabilistic assessment of electoral outcomes based on a historical analysis of polling data since 1952. The simulation further accounts for the fact that similar states are likely to move together, e.g. future polling movement in states like Michigan and Ohio, or North and South Carolina, is likely to be in the same direction.

I'm no statistical genius, but it sounds like all that could be condensed into:

We guess, just like everyone else.

LOL.

Or they flip a coin.

[bobbynichols]

Interesting page.

A timely quote on my iGoogle home page today:

Statistics: The only science that enables different experts using the same figures to draw different conclusions. - Evan Esar

[JDoors]

Statistics sure are ripe for abuse. You can quote statistics that support your argument 'til you're blue in the face, and STILL not be right.

[martymas]

it would be a good thing for the world if obama

was elected

but he is black

and dont americans

eliminate black leaders

ive just come from a site

and obams gets the right wing treatment

look how the right wing has f----- the money circulation

and it will send the world into a depression

americans will feel it worse that other countrys

as they have been affluent for the last 30 40yrs

and the bastards that caused this will get away with it

in a post some time ago

i mentioned the stock market

was a lottery

and shoukd be regulated

and i got

hell for my observations

but my words are comming true

some one said i was a communist

well we cant have it both ways

can we

marty

Edited October 7, 2008 by martymas

[JDoors]

America does not eliminate black leaders. That's hogwash.

Republicans have been asking for regulation of Fannie May and Freddie Mac for ten years, Democrats crushed it because Fannie May and Freddie Mac are among their largest contributors (with, surprise, Obama recieving the most money) and because Democrats wanted to use the force of law to give loans to lower-income people who could not afford one, hence the crash when home prices droppped. So that's hogwash.

Stock markets have been crashing throughout the world. America has had one of the lowest percentage drops of them all. America crashing is hogwash.

Anything else on your mind?

[irregularjoe]

All right now......let's not let this get out of control

I'm not sure what Marty's post has to do with the subject.

As far as Fannie and Freddie go, I think the blame can be layed at many levels. Neither side is exempt. Case in point: Rick Davis.

Nuff said.

[JDoors]

I agree; no one person, company, organization or political party is entirely to blame.

Some are more responsible than others ... but ...

[martymas]

i agree no one person is to blame

it is a guy called GREED

but the rot has set in world wide

my home page is

www.bbc.co.uk

and you want to see the comments on this subject

in europe

so it has gone world wide

do you think america

will invade iran

to shore up their econimy

isnt that what countrys do when the recession starts

create a war

all powerfull countrys do this

as i said greed is at the end of it all

marty

[jcl]

i agree no one person is to blame

it is a guy called GREED

There's nothing wrong with greed. The problem is irrational greed.

do you think america

will invade iran

to shore up their econimy

If the government wanted to try a 'military recovery' it could ramp up the war in Afghanistan. Afghanistan would probably need to be sorted out before an invasion of Iran anyway.

[JDoors]

i agree no one person is to blame

it is a guy called GREED

but the rot has set in world wide

my home page is

www.bbc.co.uk

and you want to see the comments on this subject

in europe

so it has gone world wide

do you think america

will invade iran

to shore up their econimy

isnt that what countrys do when the recession starts

create a war

all powerfull countrys do this

as i said greed is at the end of it all

marty

There's a famous quote from the movie Wall Street, "Greed, for lack of a better word, is good." I HATE that quote! Especially as it applies to Wall Street. Yeah, humans HAVE to have some greed for survival (ya gotta stock up some nuts & berries or you'll starve when times are tough), but greed that harms others is NOT good. Naive, maybe, but that's the way I feel.

I would NOT want to hear what other countries have to say about this or any other subject. The sport of America bashing is just a way to distract people from troubles at home, and it appears to work quite well. It means nothing to me, however.

IF we are forced to use military action to prevent Iran from going nuclear, it will have nothing to do with the economy. The world has been considering options regarding Iran long before the bottom dropped out of the economy. Even if the only countries that still have the courage to deal with the world's problems, that is, the ones that assisted or led in Iraq and Afghanistan, even if they are the only ones left to do the job, it has to be done. History has repeatedly shown that countries that turn their backs to the world's problems soon regret it.

I think history has also shown that war is NOT good for the economy (know what a "ration stamp" is?), it's AFTER a war that the economy recovers. No politician thinks that far in advance. They just aren't that smart.

[irregularjoe]

This topic reminded of of the great Micheal Douglas portraying the evil Gordon Gekko in the 1987 film ...Wall Street. "Greed is good".

Edit: It looks like you beat me to it JDoors

Edited October 9, 2008 by irregularjoe

[jcl]

I think history has also shown that war is NOT good for the economy (know what a "ration stamp" is?), it's AFTER a war that the economy recovers.

US GDP almost doubled between 1939 and 1945. I'm too tired to crunch the numbers but I think that was the most rapid growth in the last century.

Edit: There was apparently similar, though much less rapid, growth in the other major powers, correlating with their military success.

Edit: Incidentally, I don't think this trick would work as well with post-industrial economies. Now if we could find a way to sue Iran....

[hitest]

This topic reminded of of the great Micheal Douglas portraying the evil Gordon Gekko in the 1987 film ...Wall Street. "Greed is good".

Edit: It looks like you beat me to it JDoors

Gecko rules. That was an amazing performance by Michael Douglas.

[JDoors]

US GDP almost doubled between 1939 and 1945. I'm too tired to crunch the numbers but I think that was the most rapid growth in the last century.

Edit: There was apparently similar, though much less rapid, growth in the other major powers, correlating with their military success.

Edit: Incidentally, I don't think this trick would work as well with post-industrial economies. Now if we could find a way to sue Iran....

There are other factors in that growth, however. Like the enormous number of "new" workers in the work force, that is, women and children. They had been only a small factor before. And if you count tanks and planes as "production" then yes, GDP skyrockets, but tanks and planes do not improve anyone's standard of living. Then there's the rationing; No meat. No metals. No rubber. No gasoline. No plastics (remember how 'valuable' nylons were to civilians?). Why would a politician purposely subject the population to shortages across the board and force home makers and children into the workforce? So a few companies do well at everyone else's expense? I don't buy it.

[jcl]

There are other factors in that growth, however. Like the enormous number of "new" workers in the work force, that is, women and children. They had been only a small factor before.

Those people entered the workforce because of the war.

And if you count tanks and planes as "production" then yes, GDP skyrockets, but tanks and planes do not improve anyone's standard of living.

Except the people paid to build them.

Why would a politician purposely subject the population to shortages across the board and force home makers and children into the workforce? So a few companies do well at everyone else's expense? I don't buy it.

*shrug*

[Bubba Bob]

LOTS of money has flown into SE Alabama thanks to the Iraq war. Sikorsky has tripled in size, adding lots of well paying tech jobs. Same with US/Bell Helicopter. COntractors in Fort Rucker Alabama, the Army's Helicopter pilot training facilities have added many jobs. The nurmerous small manufacturing companies supplying these folks have grown.

And if you count tanks and planes as "production" then yes, GDP skyrockets, but tanks and planes do not improve anyone's standard of living.

J, sorry, but you are wrong here. The thousands employed just in the immediate area working to keep the military supplied with helicopters and pilots will disagree. The kids getting a free education from military contractors that need skilled techinical workers will disagree. And virtually any store owner around here will disagree, as w/o the steady income of the contracters, the local economy would crash.

[JDoors]

We're at war. How's the economy?

[Bubba Bob]

We're at war. How's the economy?

DJI over 14k says it all.

This latest down turn has nothing to do with any war.

[jcl]

We're at war. How's the economy?

Fine. The finance industry isn't the economy.

Not that I think that the war has much to do with that.

[martymas]

if other countrys are not relivent

i suggest you read a book by tony blair or do americans

for get he went to war with george bush in iraq

with two excuses

wmd

and

poor sadam got eliminated

who was suppressing the people now killing innocent people

as well as american troops

if your posters write off other countrys

read tony blairs book

and see how

dick cheney

had the contracts to repair iraq 2 years before the war started

as i said at the start have americans forgotten tony blair

yes the next war will be iran under the pretext of wmd

like it was in iraq

i notice the right wing

posters in force with this thread

marty

[irregularjoe]

LOTS of money has flown into SE Alabama thanks to the Iraq war. Sikorsky has tripled in size, adding lots of well paying tech jobs. Same with US/Bell Helicopter. COntractors in Fort Rucker Alabama, the Army's Helicopter pilot training facilities have added many jobs. The nurmerous small manufacturing companies supplying these folks have grown.

And if you count tanks and planes as "production" then yes, GDP skyrockets, but tanks and planes do not improve anyone's standard of living.

J, sorry, but you are wrong here. The thousands employed just in the immediate area working to keep the military supplied with helicopters and pilots will disagree. The kids getting a free education from military contractors that need skilled techinical workers will disagree. And virtually any store owner around here will disagree, as w/o the steady income of the contracters, the local economy would crash.

"Thanks to the Iraq War? Come on Bubba Bob, I sincerely hope that you are not trying to justify war as a legitimate ecomonic stimulus. ....Are you?

Edited October 12, 2008 by irregularjoe

[Bubba Bob]

LOTS of money has flown into SE Alabama thanks to the Iraq war. Sikorsky has tripled in size, adding lots of well paying tech jobs. Same with US/Bell Helicopter. COntractors in Fort Rucker Alabama, the Army's Helicopter pilot training facilities have added many jobs. The nurmerous small manufacturing companies supplying these folks have grown.

And if you count tanks and planes as "production" then yes, GDP skyrockets, but tanks and planes do not improve anyone's standard of living.

J, sorry, but you are wrong here. The thousands employed just in the immediate area working to keep the military supplied with helicopters and pilots will disagree. The kids getting a free education from military contractors that need skilled techinical workers will disagree. And virtually any store owner around here will disagree, as w/o the steady income of the contracters, the local economy would crash.

"Thanks to the Iraq War? Come on Bubba Bob, I sincerely hope that you are not trying to justify war as a legitimate ecomonic stimulus. ....Are you?

Oh G-d, Of course not!

I usppose that sounds a little... bad... over the 'net. However, it IS a certain extent thanks to the Iraq war.

[JDoors]

if other countrys are not relivent ...

Not what I said. Their opinions on the economic crisis are irrelevant as long as it's just another round of America bashing. If they have something useful or pertinent to say, let's hear it. If it's just more "America sucks," it IS irrelevant.

Funny how the world ignored the shipments of yellowcake uranium we took out of Iraq around a month ago. I don't know how there could be yellow cake uranium in Iraq if there were no nuclear power plants to use it. Maybe they use it for paperweights or something. Or maybe we snuck it in there just to take it back out. Or how the world forgot the chemical weapons that were used before we got there. Hundreds of thousands of people killed by WMDs don't count because, well, they're already dead?

There is no question Iraq has every intention of building a nuclear arsenal, they say so at every opportunity. How that gets turned into a "pretense" of WMDs I can't fathom. But I can see it now; IF they leave the civilized world no choice, and IF there's anyone left with the courage to stop them, and IF it leads to a war, there won't be any WMDs because the world will have acted BEFORE there's a live bomb. Kinda like, you know, that other place.

Or we could hope that like every other country that obtained the ability to make nuclear weapons since the end of WWII, once they have one they'll discover they can never use it. The retaliation would be destroy their country. Let's cross our fingers!